The referendum was originally planned for 2027, as promised by the ruling coalition in Reykjavík, but the deadline is now being accelerated due to heightened geopolitical tensions and changes in the international environment.
The move comes at a time when the EU enlargement process is gaining momentum again. Brussels is working on a plan that could allow Ukraine partial membership as early as next year, while Montenegro closed another negotiation chapter last month, consolidating its position as the most advanced candidate.
Geopolitical pressures and US tariffs
The acceleration of the Icelandic referendum takes place in the context of Washington’s decision to introduce customs duties to Iceland, as well as the statement of US President Donald Trump (Trump) about the possible annexation of Greenland. Additional attention was also caused by the joke of Billy Long, Trump’s candidate for the US ambassador to Iceland, who said that Iceland could become the “52nd state of the USA” and that he would be its governor.
An EU official familiar with the situation said that the fact that Iceland was repeatedly mentioned in Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos “certainly focused attention” on the position of this small North Atlantic country.
EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, who met Icelandic Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir in Brussels last month, said the enlargement conversation is changing.
“The conversation about enlargement is shifting. It is increasingly about security, belonging and preserving our ability to act in a world of competing spheres of influence. This concerns all Europeans,” said Kos.
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, met in Brussels with the Prime Minister of Iceland, Kristrún Frostadottir, assessing that the EU-Iceland partnership “offers stability and predictability in an unstable world”.
From the financial crisis to frozen negotiations
Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009, at the height of the financial crisis in which the country’s three largest commercial banks failed. However, negotiations were frozen in December 2013, at a time when Iceland’s economy was rapidly recovering, while some economists warned of a potential crisis in the eurozone.
In March 2015, Reykjavík officially requested that it no longer be considered a candidate for EU membership.
Today, the situation is significantly different. Iceland is located in a strategically extremely important location in the North Atlantic, south of the Arctic Circle. It has no army of its own and relies on NATO membership as well as a 1951 bilateral defense agreement with the US.
It is the security aspect, along with economic benefits, that influences the growth of public support for EU membership, according to the latest public opinion surveys.
Fishing – an old obstacle, a new reality
However, the path to membership is not easy. The biggest potential stumbling block remains fishing rights, a key branch of Iceland’s economy.
“In the end it all comes down to fish, that’s always been the question,” said one EU official.
During previous negotiations, serious tensions existed between Iceland and the United Kingdom, particularly over the amount of mackerel caught by Icelandic vessels. The dispute, known as the “Mackerel War”, has led to threats of trade sanctions from the EU.
However, the exit of Great Britain from the EU (Brexit) could now alleviate that problem, because London no longer participates in decision-making within the Union.
Fast negotiations – but with caution
If the citizens of Iceland support the continuation of negotiations in a referendum, the process could proceed relatively quickly. Iceland is a member of the European Economic Area and part of the Schengen area, and already applies a significant part of EU legislation.
Before freezing the negotiations in 2013, Iceland closed 11 out of a total of 33 negotiating chapters. Montenegro, currently the most advanced candidate, only recently exceeded that number.
One EU official said that “on paper it wouldn’t be too difficult; it could even take as little as a year” to close all the chapters. However, informed sources in Iceland warn that such a deadline would be too ambitious, bearing in mind the complexity of certain issues.
After the eventual conclusion of the negotiations, Iceland would have to hold another referendum on the final accession to the EU.
Unlike many other candidates, Iceland – which has the fifth highest GDP per capita in the world – is not joining the Union primarily for economic reasons, but increasingly for security and geopolitical reasons.
The outcome of the possible referendum in August could thus represent a turning point not only for Iceland, but also for the wider policy of the enlargement of the European Union, concludes the text of the American portal Politico.
(Vijesti.ba)
