The expiration of the last remaining nuclear deal between the United States and Russia on Thursday raised fears of a nuclear race, as the two biggest nuclear powers have no limits on their arsenals for the first time in decades.
“The worst-case scenario is that the situation spirals and some unforeseen or predictable incident triggers a conflict that quickly escalates into a nuclear conflict,” said Thomas Countryman, former acting assistant secretary of state for arms control and international security, CNN reported.
Although some experts argue that the limitations of the New START treaty are outdated and unnecessarily constrain the US, especially as China rapidly expands its nuclear arsenal. The agreement entered into force in February 2011 and set limits: 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads, 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles and heavy bombers, and 800 “deployed and non-deployed” launchers. It limited Russian ICBMs capable of reaching the US.
Critics, including Donald Trump, pointed out that the deal did not include China, which could have about 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 if it continues at its current pace, according to a 2022 Pentagon report.
The agreement was originally in force for 10 years. In 2021, the US and Russia agreed to extend it for another five years, until February 4, 2026. The agreement could no longer be extended, but countries could agree to continue to adhere to the limits specified in it.
Trump has recently shown little concern about the deal’s expiration, telling the New York Times, “If it expires, it expires. We’re going to make a better deal.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio has suggested that the US will not agree to maintain the limits, citing Trump’s proposal for a US-Russia-China trilateral nuclear deal. China has consistently refused to participate in such negotiations.
Many experts believe that it is not in the US national interest to allow New START to expire, as it would reduce predictability and transparency in monitoring Russia’s nuclear program and increase the risk of misunderstandings or mistakes.
Experts also warn that Russia could rapidly increase its nuclear arsenal if the US expands its capabilities, while extending the limit for a year could be an “easy diplomatic success” and give the US time to prepare for China’s potential nuclear development.
Without a clearly defined approach to China, abandoning the New START agreement and not having an interim agreement could lead to a risky trilateral nuclear race between the US, Russia and China, with high costs and risks for all countries involved, CNN concludes.
(Vijesti.ba)
