It is about the intensive accumulation of manpower and military equipment for a new major offensive that could mark spring and summer on the battlefield in Ukraine.
According to the estimates of military observers, Moscow has been systematically creating strategic reserves since mid-2025 with the aim of launching a powerful strike that would try to break the war in its favor and impose its own peace conditions on Kyiv by the end of the summer.
As Roman Pohorily, co-founder of the analytical group DeepState UA, stated at the security conference in Kiev, the main direction of the Russian attack should be directed towards the cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region.
The plan, he claims, is to draw the bulk of Ukraine’s ground forces into a decisive battle and try to wear them down or destroy them.
After that, at the beginning of summer, an auxiliary attack is expected in the south of the country, towards Zaporizhzhia and Orihiv, with the aim of stretching the Ukrainian lines and reducing the pressure on the eastern battlefield. Ruslan Mikula from DeepState estimates that Moscow could concentrate more than 100,000 troops for the main strike.
Kyiv Post also writes about these estimates, referring to Ukrainian and international sources. According to their statements, the observed movements of military units, the intensification of recruitment and the formation of reserves clearly indicate preparations for a major operation, which contradicts the messages from the Kremlin about the alleged readiness for peace.
A similar assessment was made by the American Institute for the Study of War, which believes that the Russian military command is planning to use strategic reserves for a major spring offensive in the east of the country.
However, analysts warn that such a plan could encounter serious obstacles, primarily due to the strong Ukrainian defense based on the use of drones and Russia’s problems with mobilization and manpower.
Since 2024, Ukrainian forces have been making extensive use of drone swarms to neutralize Russia’s armor advantage. The result, according to military analyses, is a significantly reduced use of tanks and armored personnel carriers on the most exposed parts of the battlefield. Russia responded by changing tactics, using smaller infantry groups to infiltrate through rubble and try to avoid aerial detection.
Such attacks bring only limited territorial shifts, but with high losses. According to information reported by the Kyiv Post, Russian forces have been trying to break through Ukrainian lines in the Pokrovka sector for months.
In some cases, they allegedly suffered heavy losses, including the destruction of armored columns, but it is not possible to independently confirm these claims.
Former CIA director and former commander of allied forces in Afghanistan, General David Petraeus, told the Kyiv Post that Russian attacks are already underway in some sectors, but that Ukrainian forces are successfully holding them back.
When asked if they could withstand a stronger, coordinated spring-summer offensive, he answered briefly: “They will stop the Russians. They will endure. The Ukrainian people are behind them.”
(Vijesti.ba)
