The continent may not have enough time. Under that scenario, a potential Russian attack could lead to a rapid collapse of defenses, well before Europe could react.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the probability of a Russian attack on NATO and European Union countries has increased due to the worsening relations between the European allies and the administration of US President Donald Trump, as well as the fact that Moscow has completely switched to a war economy.
Security analysts increasingly emphasize that the question is no longer whether a crisis will occur, but when. Estimates that previously said that Russia would not be able to seriously threaten NATO before 2029 are now being questioned, as it is believed that the critical moment could come much earlier.
A simulation of the Russian invasion of Lithuania, held in December, organized by the German newspaper Die Welt and the Helmut-Schmidt University, which is affiliated with the German armed forces, drew particular attention. 16 former high-ranking NATO officials and military experts participated in the exercise.
In the imagined scenario, Russia uses the supposed “humanitarian crisis” in Kaliningrad as an excuse to seize the Lithuanian city of Marijampola, a strategically important part of the Suwalki Corridor that connects the Baltic countries with the rest of NATO territory.
Such a narrative was enough for the United States to refuse to activate NATO’s Article 5, which provides for collective defense.
In the simulation, Germany proved indecisive, while Poland mobilized forces, but did not send them across the border. A German brigade deployed in Lithuania remained blocked after Russian drones mined the exits of the base.
The outcome of the exercise was devastating for the West – Russia, with only 15,000 soldiers, managed to undermine the credibility of NATO and establish control over the Baltic region within a few days.
Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady, who played the role of the head of the Russian General Staff in the simulation, pointed out that the key to victory was an assessment of the West’s political will, not military strength. “We knew Germany would hesitate – and that was enough,” he said.
Warnings also come from officials. Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans stated that Russia is rapidly accumulating strategic reserves and strengthening its military presence along NATO’s borders. According to him, Moscow could be ready for major military operations within a year.
Although some analysts point to Russia’s slow progress in Ukraine and heavy losses, it is estimated that Moscow could release up to 200,000 experienced soldiers in the short term, just by changing tactics on the existing front – more than were used in the initial phase of the invasion in 2022.
The simulation showed that the West’s biggest problem is a lack of resolve. In the scenario, Russia skilfully used hybrid methods and information manipulations to paralyze the allies’ reaction.
Polish security analyst Bartłomiej Kot emphasized that Western governments often instinctively seek de-escalation, even when faced with aggressive moves by Moscow.
Although Lithuania claims that it would defend itself without hesitation and that Russia would risk losing Kaliningrad in a real conflict, the uncertainty about the US role is adding to the concerns in Europe.
The conclusion of the exercise is clear: the Kremlin does not need a mass invasion to achieve its strategic goals.
Limited military moves, a good assessment of the moment and a brief hesitation by the West are enough to seriously undermine NATO’s unity and call into question its credibility.
(Vijesti.ba)
