Now the world is desperately evaluating the damage caused by the changing customs of the American President Donald Trump in Chinese imports, and experts reuse innovative assessment techniques. Their findings suggest that the largest world economy is not yet stumbled, but the problems are in sight.
Meanwhile, new data from the US Institute for Economic Analysis were published, which show that the American gross domestic product (GDP) fell at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025. Years.
According to the analysis of the economist, both the trade between the United States and China is already sinking, America may be only a few weeks away from a strong economic shock.
Even before the introduction of customs, on January 9, the research indicated that American consumers and firms were already concerned. According to the research of the Federal Reserve (US Central Bank – Fed) in Dallas, production fell on a record low level for April. But such statistics can be welded.
Americans allow them to their political views “Both” opinion on the state of the economy. During the term of Joe Biden, they often declared their low trust, while they continued to spend at the same time, which made the interpretation of the results less predictive. On the other hand, “claims” data, such as salary and GDP assessments, describe the world that no longer – high employment data reflects the company’s behavior at the time when the Trump Customs threats was still unclear.
Real-time data aim to avoid both traps by providing a timely image of activities in the economy. Many indicators from the era of Pandemic COVIDA-19 are not relevant or no longer published. But the global store is still thoroughly monitored. The ships depart weeks before arriving at the destination, sending its position with satellites and providing an insight into the list of contents containing.
Some of the data, writes the Economist, could indicate the limited influence of the trade war so far. In the week ended 25. April, 10 container ships with 555,000 tons of goods arrived in Los Angeles and Long Beach ports – Preferred American front door for goods from China. That’s about the same as a year ago. But, as he notes, the sailing between China and the west coast of America lasts between two weeks and 40 days and many freight ships arriving now in the United States sailed before the introduction of customs.
Some other indicators, on the other hand, look scary. Reservations for new trips between China and America fell 45 percent compared to the previous year in the week, which began on April 14, according to Vision data. The number of Java navigation, when the ship skips the port or carrier uses smaller ships on the route to equalize the service, increased to 40 percent of all planned trips. Pricing data suggests that trade flows are redirected.
According to Freightos, which provides logistics services, the price of navigation between Shanghai and Los Angeles fell by about $ 1,000 in the past, as the companies stopped importing more than usual to prevent the introduction of customs and to avoid them. The price of transporting goods from Vietnam in the United States has increased by a similar amount, which indicates that importers are looking for alternative suppliers.
The question is whether, which of these ringtones on the alarm is false. Data on shipping are seasonal and unstable – a decrease of 30 percent compared to the previous year in Los Angeles, for example, within the usual weekly variations, as small as one in Seattle, only a single cargo ship per day.
A few days without arriving a ship may not be anything unusual. Nor the wider used high-frequency indicators do not signal that the economy has already stopped. Consumption by credit cards and open jobs in the US were roughly at the same levels in April as in the same month 2024. years, according to Bank Barclays.
But the damage probably come. Trade shocks may take a while to expand the economy – some companies have begun in stock before customs have entered into force.
Demand for customs warehouses, which enable the storage of goods near the port and pay customs only after it has been issued, rose abruptly. Many companies choose not to raise prices – what would theoretically need to ryate their supplies – because they are bound by existing contracts or want to preserve customer relationships in case Trump gives up everything. But it may still be forced to do so soon.
The uncertainty created by Trump’s unpredictable customs policy has found many shipping companies from Xeneto, the consulting company for logistics, even in a decade in which they were worn by pandemia, blocking the Sueese Channel and the Hutist’s attacks in the Red Sea.
This will have a trafficking and a wider economy even if the United States cancels its most frequent measures.
The ships that did not go on time will be delayed or will not come at all, the stock will be reduced, many companies will frozen investment and employment plans, and restarting the process could go very slowly. The US is not yet suffering from the trade storm that they caused and started themselves, but the forecast for shipping is not good, concludes the Economist, conveys the morning.
(Vijesti.ba)
