Bosnia and Herzegovina has been recording a decline in the birth rate and a negative natural increase for years, without a clear population policy and systematic measures.
In the last three years, the country has lost almost 30,000 inhabitants, while in the next three decades they could lose up to 70 percent of the population, reports N1.
As of September last year, about 17,500 babies (17,465) were born in BiH, while more than 26,500 people (26,600) died. Negative natural growth, in which Bosnia and Herzegovina lost about 10 thousand inhabitants per year, was recorded in 2024 and 2023, which means that in the last three years we have lost almost 30 thousand inhabitants. The last 25 years have seen a continuous decline in marriages.
A moral question
– Having a child is a moral issue. Can you provide him with a normal human future? If you can’t do that, then as a responsible man you are in a big dilemma – to have or not to have a child. And if so – when? Are the conditions ripe, does he have a chance for this society to give him everything he needs? – are questions asked by sociologist Esad Bajtal.
For the most part, there is none, which is why the working-age population, primarily young people, decide to live and work outside the borders of their home country. And the authorities are doing absolutely nothing to prevent it. Bosnia and Herzegovina does not even have a population policy at the state level, because the responsibilities are divided by entities.
In addition to the natural trend, i.e. negative natural increase, demographers also warn about migration trends, where we lose a huge number of working-age population, as well as the chance for reproduction.
Emigration
Demographic analyst Adnan Fehratbegović believes that the main reason for the catastrophically negative demographic picture is emigration:
– In the last 10-12 years, that emigration has intensified. According to official Eurostat data, since 2016, around 400,000 residence permits have been issued for BiH residents, for a period of six months or more. It is not an exact indicator of how many people have moved out, but it is extremely indicative. In principle, everyone who leaves for a six-year period leaves, in fact, for a longer period of time, even forever.
Citizens mostly leave because of corruption, which is deeply rooted in all social segments, and which was recently presented by Transparency International BiH, stating that, according to the Corruption Perception Index (CPI), BiH is among the four worst positioned countries in Europe.
– FBiH also has the worst position in this field because it is still the only administrative unit that does not have the Law on the Protection of Corruption Reporters – says Edo Kanlić from Ti BIH.
Black forecasts
With corruption, nepotism, political privileges and the feeling that knowledge and effort are not valued, it’s no wonder that around 70% of young people are thinking about leaving. Projections of the number of newborns are not promising even until 2033, while in the next three decades BiH could be left without another 70% of the population.
– The number of the 65+ population will increase drastically, on the other hand, the working-age population will drastically decrease, so we will face very big challenges. In the past few years, the PIO Fund was transferred to the FBiH budget, which I have already warned about – reminds Adnan Fehratbegović.
– They closed all the doors. They nailed everything. There is no perspective. There are only their quarrels, their lies, fabrications, there is a tension of fear – he says.
While BH the authorities deal with trivial issues, how many citizens we sent away, we will not officially find out this year either, because the Population Census has been pending since 2013. Only war-torn Ukraine makes us a society, while the states of the region duly fulfilled this obligation from 2020 to 2024.
