Increasing the minimum wage in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina on 1,000 convertible marks without fiscal reforms, which came into force 1. January 2025. years, significant disorders in the domestic economy, and among the most appropriate cantons is Zenica-Doboj Canton (ZDK). Although the FBiH government has announced and promised economic growth through subsidies and reform, the actual data show a different trend – employment growth was stopped, including the CPC, the number of employees is even reduced.
According to the official data of the Federal Bureau of Statistics, the number of employees in the Federation of BiH as of 31. March 2025. It was 542,803, which is more than 88 people more than in the same day of the previous year. This microscopic growth, almost statistical error occurs in the period when, according to all the announcements, a significant increase in the number of jobs should be reached.
In Zenica-Doboj Canton, however, the situation is even more wasted. In March 2025. The number of employees amounted to 86,265, which is a decline of as many as 996 compared to March 2024. year, when that figure was 87,261. This negative balance comes as a surprise considering that the ZDK is one of the most industrially the most developed cantons in the FBiH, with strong sectors of the metal and the wood industry, but also a growing number of small and medium enterprises operating in the zone between growth and survival.
Businessmen warned, authority denied
Prior to the months before the entry into force of the Minimum Pay Act, businessmen throughout the Federation have warned that the increase in minimals without prior fiscal and tax reforms may have negative consequences. The absence of measures that would reduce paraphic loads and contributions at the same time further worsened the situation.
The Government of the Federation of BiH then claimed that the increase in the minimum salary would contribute to a better living standard of citizens and that through targeted measures to assist employers overcome this period. Among these measures, the subsidizing contributions for craft, micro and small firms, release from contributions for salary increases. However, as the weeks passed, so it became more clearly that the announced benefits were not fast enough, clear nor efficient to really help the economy.
A negative trend in Zenica-Doboj Canton is a symptom of a wider problem. Namely, from ten cantons in the Federation of BiH, as many as six recorded a decline in employees. In addition to the ZD, a significant decline was also recorded in Tuzla Canton (-593), Central Bosnia Canton (-534), and Una-Sana Canton (-576). These data indicate that the most affected cantons are located exactly where the concentration of export and production sector is most pronounced.
Despite government claims that the economy will recover quickly, the reality in the field shows the opposite. Firm owners, especially in smaller and medium-sized enterprises, are facing the choice between the release of workers and closing business. Enterprises are especially affected, which has so far employed workers by minimum wages and that do not have the capacity to fund new legal increase from their own funds, writes Zenit.
Political messages without economic effect
While from the FBiH Government, optimistic messages about “necessary changes” and “Protection of workers”, figures clearly say that changes are not adequately prepared or implemented. The economy of the Zenica-Doboj Canton recovered from a pandemic stroke, is now located in front of the new challenge – how to preserve jobs and ensure liquidity in the conditions of increased expenditures and reduced support.
If this trend continues, there is a realistic danger that the decline in employment in ZDK, but also to other industrial regions, is further deepening. Analysts predict that the gray economy could increase in the coming months, as well as the eviction of the workforce, which would further collapse any sensitive labor market structure in BiH.
