The annual Emissions Gap report states that due to slow action by countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it is now clear that the world will exceed the key target of the 2015 Paris Agreement – at least temporarily.
“Reversing this trend will be difficult – faster and more drastic additional emissions reductions will be needed to minimize overshoot,” UNEP said.
The report’s lead author, Anne Olhoff, said deep emissions cuts could delay the point at which an overshoot would occur, but that “we can no longer completely avoid it.”
The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to limit the increase in average global temperature to below 2°C, with the goal of keeping it at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
However, current government pledges to cut future emissions – even if they are met – will see the world warm by 2.3 to 2.5°C, according to UNEP.
That’s about 0.3°C less than last year’s UN estimate – meaning that new plans to cut emissions, including those announced by China, the world’s biggest CO₂ emitter, have not narrowed the gap significantly.
In September, China pledged to cut emissions by 7-10% from the peak by 2035. Analysts note that China often sets modest targets and then exceeds them.
The report’s findings increase pressure on this month’s COP30 UN climate summit, where countries will debate how to accelerate and finance action to combat global warming.
The warming targets of the Paris Agreement are based on scientific assessments of how each additional rise in temperature increases the risk of extreme heat waves, droughts and fires.
A warming of 2°C more than doubles the number of people exposed to extreme heat compared to 1.5°C.
A rise of 1.5°C would destroy at least 70% of the world’s coral reefs, while 2°C would destroy 99%.
Current policies – measures already in place, not just promised – would lead the world to even greater warming, around 2.8°C, warns UNEP.
10 years ago, when the Paris Agreement was signed, the world was on track for a warming of around 4°C. UNEP admits that there has been some progress, but far from enough to meet the promised goals.
Yet heat-trapping CO₂ emissions continue to rise as countries continue to burn coal, oil and gas to power their economies.
Global greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.3% in 2024, reaching 57.7 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, the report said.
(Vijesti.ba)
