– With a population of around 90 million, even a partial destabilization could affect refugee waves of unprecedented proportions, the report of the European Union Asylum Agency, which was compiled last weekend, before the outbreak of war, points out.
– The displacement of even just 10 percent of the Iranian population would be such that it could be compared to the biggest refugee waves in recent decades, the authors write in this document, prepared before the American-Israeli attacks, reports Hina.
Asked by the AFP for an update on the assessment after the outbreak of war, the agency said that ‘the situation remains very volatile and it would be irresponsible to make hypothetical statements’.
In 2025, 8,000 Iranians sought asylum
The number of asylum applications submitted by Iranians in Europe is currently quite low. During 2025, there were 8,000, far less than the claims submitted by Afghans (117,000) or Venezuelans (91,000). Attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran have so far not prompted a mass exodus.
But ‘the scale of the potential risk is considerable’, the EU asylum agency believes, especially given that Iran is one of the countries where one of the largest refugee populations in the world lives, a situation that could probably cause a real cascade of displacement.
The authors of the report note that the scenario of a large wave of Iranian refugees is currently speculative. This means that the exiles would pass through Turkey and then continue on to Europe.
– All this is very unstable, said a European expert on immigration, wishing to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the topic. But it is already a subject of discussion among the leaders.
A drop in the number of requests after the fall of al-Assad
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, emphasized on Sunday evening that she had discussed the matter with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
– Unfortunately, we know that generally when conflicts break out in certain regions, it triggers migration waves, the European Commission explained on Tuesday, although they claim that there is no reason to believe that the current situation will cause a mass exodus of refugees.
That question will be on the agenda of the discussions of the 27 EU interior ministers, who are meeting on Thursday in Brussels.
During 2025, EU countries and their neighbors (Norway and Switzerland) received approximately 822,000 asylum applications, a decrease of 19 percent compared to the previous year. This decline follows an 11 percent decrease in 2024.
The decline recorded in 2025 can largely be explained by the decrease in the number of claims submitted by Syrians, following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024.
The number of asylum seekers has never again reached the level of 2015, when hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, fleeing the war, arrived in Europe.
(Vijesti.ba)
