The birth rate fell to 5.63 births per 1,000 population in 2025, below the previous low of 6.39 in 2023, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. This decline suggests that the slight increase in births in 2024 was an exception rather than the beginning of a reversal of a long-term downward trend that has been ongoing since 2016.
At the same time, China’s economy achieved growth of 5% in 2025, in line with the government’s annual target of “around 5%”.
Growth driven by exports, but slowing at the end of the year
Annual economic growth was supported by strong exports, which offset trade tensions with the United States and weak domestic consumption. China posted a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion last year, despite an occasional trade war with the administration of US President Donald Trump, writes CNN.
However, the data also show a slowdown in the economy in the last quarter, when growth was 4.5% on an annual basis – the slowest quarterly growth since the end of 2022.
Officials highlighted the “exceptional stability” of the economy. Director of the Bureau of Statistics Kang Yi stated that this result was achieved despite a “complex and serious situation, characterized by rapid changes in the external environment and growing domestic challenges.”
Population decline and aging society
The data shows that 7.92 million babies were born in China last year, while 11.31 million people died, which means that the total population decreased by 3.39 million. China’s population, still the second largest in the world after India, is estimated to be around 1.4 billion in 2025.
Demographic trends represent a serious challenge, as the working age population is decreasing, while the number of retirees is increasing. In 2025, the number of people over the age of 60 reached 323 million, or 23% of the total population, which is an increase of one percentage point compared to 2024.
According to United Nations projections, as much as half of China’s population could be over 60 by 2100, which would have far-reaching consequences for the country’s economy and geopolitical ambitions.
Attempts by the government to encourage childbearing
The drop in birth rates is a blow to Beijing’s efforts to reverse the effects of decades of strict birth control policies, including the former one-child policy, which was abolished in 2016.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly spoken about the need for “population security” and the development of a “quality population”. Last year, the government introduced annual financial allowances for families with children under the age of three, simplified the procedures for concluding marriages and launched a program of free public preschool education.
Local authorities also offer additional incentives, including tax credits, help to buy and rent flats, lump sum payments and extended maternity leave.
Experts, however, believe that it will be difficult to stop the decline in the number of births, given the high cost of raising children, unemployment among young people and the uneven distribution of responsibilities in the family, which especially deters women from founding or expanding their families.
Weak consumption and an uncertain future
Although annual growth of 5% showed the resilience of the Chinese economy, economists warn of deep-seated problems: weak household consumption, deflationary pressures and heavy dependence on exports.
In December, retail sales increased by only 0.9%, compared to 1.3% in November, while total investments in real estate, industry and infrastructure fell by 3.8% on an annual basis – the first such decline in the history of the measurement. The real estate sector recorded a drop of as much as 17.2%.
One of the few bright spots remains strong investment in artificial intelligence, technology and financial markets.
A look ahead
In March, the Chinese government will set a new target for economic growth and present the next five-year development plan. The OECD forecasts that China’s economic growth will slow to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, while the International Monetary Fund expects growth of around 4.5% next year.
At the same time, some analysts question the accuracy of the official data, claiming that the real growth in 2025 was between 2.5% and 3%.
In the coming period, attention will be focused on how ambitious the growth goal Beijing will set – and how strongly it will try to stimulate domestic consumption as a new engine of the economy.
(Vijesti.ba)
