Officials in Venezuela claim that their long-standing security alliance with Moscow was just a “paper tiger”, and similar sentiments are shared in other allied capitals.
From Damascus and Tehran to Havana, regimes that have relied on close ties to the Kremlin over the past 13 months have seen Russian support slip away at key moments, Bloomberg writes.
Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow after Russian military aid stopped arriving. Cuba, without its protector, is facing a humanitarian crisis that could turn into a more serious problem. Iran, a country bombed by the US in 2025, is facing protests that threaten the stability of the regime, but also the threat of further US military intervention.
The breakdown of confidence in Venezuela
The most striking example of Russian neglect of allies is the situation of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, who is in prison in New York. As the security apparatus in Caracas analyzes the circumstances of his arrest, officials express dismay at the failure of Cuban and Russian partners to protect him.
Although US President Donald Trump has publicly announced his intention to oust Maduro, officials in Caracas say the Cuban and Russian intelligence services they rely on have failed to identify threats or provide useful information.
Much of Maduro’s personal security was entrusted to Cuban intelligence, and the Cuban government confirmed the death of 32 citizens during the US operation. Trust between Venezuela and Cuban partners has been seriously damaged.
Criticism was also directed at the Russian anti-aircraft systems S-300 and Buk-M2, which did not protect the airspace of Venezuela. Similarly, Russian cyber assistance was insufficient when US cyber-attacks temporarily cut power to parts of Caracas.
All this led to a collapse of confidence in the security alliance between Venezuela, Cuba and Russia. In Caracas, Maduro’s successor, Delcy Rodriguez, is now being forced to consider American offers and reduce dependence on former allies.
Moscow’s priorities
Putin has not yet publicly commented on the American action in Venezuela, while the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has only published a formal statement stating that such moves violate international law. According to sources, Russian officials are unhappy about Maduro’s arrest.
Relations with the USA are currently more important to Moscow than Venezuela. While Maduro’s arrest is embarrassing for Russia, it is not a disaster.
Iran presents a more serious challenge because Russian military cooperation with Tehran is much tighter. While Russia may publicly support Iran, it is unlikely to engage more deeply due to its limited capacity and priority commitment to the war in Ukraine.
These developments suggest that it is becoming even more important for the Kremlin to achieve its goals in Ukraine without compromise, further complicating President Trump’s efforts to reach a peace deal.
(Vijesti.ba)
