According to the seasonal forecast of the Federal Hydrometeorological Institute, summer 2025. year (period of 1. June to 31. Augusta) in Bosnia and Herzegovina should be warmer than the 1991-2020 reference period. year.
This assessment is based on long-term forecast models used within the Forum for the Climate Outlights of Southeast Europe (SEECOF – 33), and the probability of the forecast is high 70 percent.
All three summer months – June, July and August – are expected with positive temperature deviations compared to a perennial average. The most pronounced increase in temperatures is forecast in July. However, during the summer, shorter fresh periods are possible, with temperatures below average for the time of the year. It is important to emphasize that despite the expected higher temperatures, the summer 2025 are provided as something fresher compared to the exceptionally warm summer of 2024. Years.
More than 60 warm days (days with a maximum temperature higher than 25 ° C), while up to 85 such days are expected in Bosnia.
Precipitation below average but with local disasters
Unlike the temperature, the seasonal rainfall is carried a greater dose of insecurity. However, the available data suggest that total rainfall in the summer 2025. years could be below average for the 1991-2020 reference period. The biggest negative deviations in precipitation is expected in Herzegovina, especially during July and August.
In addition to reduced precipitation, two extreme phenomena are possible during the summer: local short-lived showers, which can bring a larger amount of rain in a short time, as well as extended dry periods. The exact dates of these phenomenon cannot be predicted with this type of forecast, writes Clix,
Recommendations to citizens and institutions
The Federal Hydrometeorological Institute points out that long-term (seasonal) forecasts primarily serve as a general climatic landmark, not as accurate predictions for specific days. It is therefore recommended for regular monitoring of medium-term (15-day) and daily time bulletins, especially during critical weather conditions.
Notes on methodology
The products of the Federal Hydrometeorological Institute, SEECOF and Medcof Forecast, as well as data and models of renowned meteorological centers: DWD (Germany), IRI (USA) and ECMWF (European Center for Medium Terms) have been used for this seasonal forecast.
The probability of realizing the forecast is expressed through three levels:
Little probability: 1 – 40 percent,
Moderate probability: 41 – 70 percent,
Higher likelihood: 71 – 100 percent.
For additional information on the seasonal forecast, citizens can contact the Office by phone: +387 33 276 711.
