The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina faces a continuous worsening of the demographic picture, and the latest data further confirm the depth of the problem.
According to information from the Federal Bureau of Statistics, in February of this year, all ten cantons recorded a negative natural increase. 1,168 babies were born, while 1,633 people died, which means that the natural increase was -465, with a vital index of only 72.
Demographic analyst Adnan Ferhatbegović in an interview for TVSA points out that such data are not a surprise, but an expected continuation of long-standing negative trends.
“This is nothing new, we have been warning about it for years. Unfortunately, the situation will not improve in the near future either. We are talking about negative trends that will last for decades,” emphasizes Ferhatbegović.
He cites the mass emigration of the population as the primary cause of depopulation. According to Eurostat data, about 40,000 people leave Bosnia and Herzegovina every year.
“It is a number that corresponds to one full Koševo stadium. When we know that this trend repeats itself year after year, it is clear that we are facing a serious systemic problem,” says Ferhatbegović.
Of particular concern is the fact that mostly young and educated people are leaving the country, which further weakens the country’s demographic and economic potential. Speaking about the response of the institutions, Ferhatbegović assesses that the existing measures did not produce results.
“These are mainly measures on paper, often of a populist nature. If 40,000 people leave your country every year, and that trend lasts for ten years, it is clear that these measures do not work,” he points out.
He adds that the existing policies do not deal with the essential causes of the problem, primarily emigration, but focus on short-term solutions without long-term effect. Ferhatbegović also questions the level of involvement of experts in the creation of public policies.
“If we have these numbers for years, without concrete progress, it is clear that not enough is being done to solve the problem systematically,” he says.
Through communication with regional experts who deal with demography, he concludes that the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is even more complex than in the countries of the region.
Unlike neighboring countries that have more developed institutional frameworks and more active policies in the field of demography, Bosnia and Herzegovina still does not have an adequate, coordinated response to these challenges. If the current trends continue, the country will face serious consequences – from a reduction in the workforce to additional pressure on the pension and health systems.
Experts warn that without a comprehensive strategy that will simultaneously address the economic, social and political causes of emigration, as well as support for families and the birth rate, it is unrealistic to expect an improvement in the demographic picture. As Ferhatbegović concludes, “there is time to react, but there is no more room for mistakes”.
