The US president told the “Financial Times” that he wants to “take Iran’s oil” and could still use US troops to seize the tiny island of Karg, the country’s main oil export terminal.
Karg Island handles about 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports, and its seizure would give the US the ability to disrupt Iran’s energy trade and put enormous pressure on the economy.
The said island is located 25 kilometers off the coast at the northern end of the Gulf and northwest of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically important shipping route that Iran has effectively closed to pressure the US.
While U.S. forces could probably capture Karg Island fairly quickly, analysts say the occupation is more likely to widen and prolong the war than deliver a decisive victory or advantage in negotiations. Iran has fortified the island with additional surface-to-air missiles and laid traps, including anti-personnel and anti-tank mines in the waters surrounding it, CNN reported, citing people familiar with US intelligence.
The former commander of the US Central Command, Joseph Votel, told “TWZ.com” last week that although only 800 to 1,000 troops would be needed on Karg Island, it would need logistical support that would also need protection.
Votel said that American troops would be very vulnerable and doubted that capturing the islands would provide any particular tactical advantage. It would be “a bit weird… But we could certainly do it if we had to,” he said.
The troops would face traps set by Iran
Troops already finding their way into traps would likely have to face a barrage of missiles and drones. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohamad Bager Ghalibaf said on Sunday that the country was ready and waiting for the arrival of US ground troops “to set them on fire”.
“The enemy is publicly signaling negotiations, while secretly planning a ground attack,” he said in a message broadcast on Iranian state media. Iran has accused Trump of stalling talks on talks to quickly send troops to the region for an invasion.
Gulf allies have warned the administration against putting troops ashore in Iran, saying it could trigger more retaliation from Tehran, possibly against its energy and civilian infrastructure, a senior Gulf official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Where is Karg Island?
The small island could become the latest hotbed of hostilities between the US, Israel and Iran and be the Islamic Republic’s Achilles’ heel.
A White House official said last week that Trump had made it clear “there are no current plans to send ground troops anywhere,” but added that he always kept all options on the table.
Responding to questions about the deployment of troops on the ground, Caroline Luitt, the White House press secretary, said: “It is the Pentagon’s job to make preparations to give the commander in chief maximum choice.”
“Trump is sending contradictory signals,” said Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. “He’s a one-man ‘fog of war’ messaging machine to keep opponents off balance.”
The president had previously boasted that US strikes in mid-March had “destroyed” Iran’s military outposts on the island, but had so far left its oil infrastructure alone.
Seizing the island “would cut off Iran’s oil lifeline”
U.S. administration officials said discussions about taking Karg Island were underway, according to Axios. The land, which is smaller than the City of Westminster in London, could choke Iran’s economy and leave a devastating impact for years to come.
“Seizing the islands would cut off Iran’s oil lifeline, which is crucial to the regime,” Petras Katinas, climate, energy and defense researcher at the Royal United Services Institute’s European office, told The Telegraph.
“Of course, given that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is now stopped, they can’t sell oil anyway, but looking ahead, seizing it would give the US an advantage during negotiations, regardless of which regime is in power after the military operation ends.”
Shipping through the strait has largely been halted since the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) took “full control” of the main waterway.
Global supply chains have been hit hard, and experts warn of a devastating economic impact around the world if this continues.
Oil prices rose to more than $119 a barrel on Thursday before falling, with the IRGC warning that they could reach $200 if hostilities intensify.
“Taking Kharg, rather than destroying it, could not only ensure that the regime can never again pay the salaries of its bureaucrats and soldiers,” former Pentagon official Michael Rubin wrote in an article for the American Enterprise Institute in January of this year, before Trump’s attack.
He added:
“But also, in the future after regime change, it can ensure that the new Iranian regime can finance its own reconstruction. The IRGC could, of course, target Karg with ballistic missiles, but that would sign their death warrant. Trump would not only retaliate, but such action would end Iranian oil exports for months to come, again leaving wages unpaid.”
The island “could be used as a bargaining chip” in negotiations
Other analysts suggest that the island could be used as a bargaining chip because oil exports account for nearly 40 percent of Iran’s state budget.
However, this would leave American and Israeli troops vulnerable to attack by Iranian forces.
“If President Trump decides to seize this key hub, it would deal a significant blow to the Iranian regime, as it would deprive them of a key source of income,” oil analyst Tamas Varga told CNBC.
He continued:
“Such a move would be reminiscent of the US intervention in Venezuela at the beginning of the year, when it effectively took control of the country’s oil sector.”
The island was previously attacked by Saddam Hussein in 1984, sparking a tanker war in the ongoing conflict between Iran and Iraq.
But this isn’t the first time Karg appears to be in Trump’s sights. He previously made a passing remark about the island nearly 40 years ago while promoting his book The Art of the Deal in an interview with The Guardian.
“They beat us psychologically, made us look like a bunch of fools,” he said of Iran in 1988. “One bullet into one of our men or ships, and I’d make a row on Karg Island. I’d go in and take it.”
Conquering the islands “would cause markets to collapse”
(Vijesti.ba)
