Dean of the Faculty of Political Sciences in Sarajevo Sead Turčalo points out that the Middle East has experienced tectonic changes that have redefined the regional architecture of power.
According to him, the continuous Israeli military action in Gaza represents the most intense campaign of genocide and ethnic cleansing in the 21st century, with over 45,000 victims and the systematic destruction of civilian infrastructure. Although Israel achieved tactical victories such as the elimination of Yahya Sinwar, the strategic goal of eliminating Hamas remained elusive.
– The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and the weakening of Hezbollah created a power vacuum that was used by Turkey, which decisively helped the Syrian opposition in overthrowing one of the harshest regimes in the region, the one led by Bashar Al Assad. The fall of the Assad regime fundamentally changed the regional balance of power. Turkey’s projection of power through proxy forces effectively creates that country as a new center of power that balances between Iranian, Saudi and Western influences in the region – says Turčalo.
On the American domestic political scene, he assessed, the victory of Donald Trump represents a significant turn that will have far-reaching consequences for the international order. His victory, albeit with a slim majority in Congress, heralds possible significant changes in America’s approach to international relations, especially toward alliances and multilateral institutions.
It is particularly significant that these changes are taking place in the context of the expansion of NATO through the accession of Finland and Sweden, which represents the biggest geopolitical transformation of Northern Europe since the end of the Cold War. This also marks the end of traditional Nordic neutrality and a significant strengthening of NATO’s strategic position vis-à-vis Russia. This change further emphasizes the shift towards a new phase of geopolitical competition between the West and Russia.
– This constellation of events suggests that the year 2025 could be marked by increased instability in the international system, where traditional allies will have to redefine their relations, and regional powers will take advantage of new opportunities for power projection – concluded Turčalo.
President of the Pan-European Movement of Austria Rainhard Kloucek singled out the election of the new president in the United States, Donald Trump, because the USA is still the leading country in the so-called to the West, but it indicates that Europe must develop its foreign and security policy.
It also highlights the end of the Assad regime in Syria, which proves a certain weakness of Russia. It also recalls the “murder” of the Russian dissident Alexei Navalny by the Russian regime in combination with the election of Vladimir Putin as president for another term.
In connection with Russian aggression against Ukraine, he stresses Ukraine’s resistance to Russian terror, and the fact that Ukraine has held part of the Kursk region for almost half a year, and Russia’s heavy losses in the march through the Donbass region.
The election of the European Parliament with a pro-European majority, combined with the formation of a new European Commission with Kaja Kallas as the new High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy and Commissioner for Defense is a signal that the EU could develop its own foreign and security policy.
It also indicates the end of the rotating presidency of Hungary in the EU and the assumption of this rotating presidency by Poland, a country that understands the threats coming from Moscow.
When it comes to the war in the Middle East, he cites an Israeli defensive strike against an attack from Iran combined with a successful strike against the military leadership of Hezbollah.
Finally, Kloucek recalled the reaching of a final agreement in the EU for the new asylum system, and “whether it’s good or bad, we have to wait and see.”
This year’s events foreshadow a brighter global future, he believes Peter Roffa columnist for Newsweek and a Washington-based contributor to the Transatlantic Leaders Network.
– The election of Donald Trump for another term in the White House returns America to the center of world events in a way that it was not in the years of (Joe) Biden – says Roff.
– The collapse of the Syrian Assad regime, we hope, changes regional dynamics in ways that promote, rather than diminish, a peaceful and prosperous future – he stressed.
Similarly, Argentine President Javier Miley’s success in breaking the spine of inflation and recession offers an alternative vision of market success to other countries in the region that have taken an economic leftward turn.
The world’s major flashpoints, Ukraine and Gaza, continue to merit attention as both are obstacles to regional and global peace and security.
– Taken together, developments at the end of the year that indicate a growing acceptance of free market principles, greater reliance on traditional energy sources, and the collapse of socialism and green energy as perceived solutions indicate that 2025 should be the year in which global living standards rise . Trade between nations is increasing, and people are looking to a brighter and more prosperous future – concluded Roff.
Mladen Ginothe editor of the foreign political newsroom of the BHT1 news program, pointed out that, above all, the year in the world was marked by the war in Gaza, in which more than 45 thousand Palestinians have been killed so far.
The extent of this conflict is shown by the fact that the Middle East region erupted during the year. The conflict spread to Lebanon where Israel was fighting Hezbollah. The situation was also dangerous during the mutual attack between Israel and Iran.
Conflict was also feared in Syria after President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown in just a few days after 24 years. The new leadership is currently sending conciliatory tones, but the situation remains precarious given that there are multiple rebel groups operating in the country.
It was not peaceful in Ukraine either, in the third year of the war with Russia. A new moment was the incursion of the Ukrainian army into Russian territory and, for the first time, the Ukrainian use of weapons from the West. As a result, Russia is changing its nuclear doctrine, which has given NATO and Western officials a headache.
– It was an election year in the United States of America. It was interesting to follow the situation because halfway through the campaign, Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy. Kamala Harris fought against Donald Trump, who survived the assassination in July, but to no avail. BHRT reported from the United States from the elections on November 5 and showed viewers what the elections look like in a country with more than 340 million inhabitants – says Dzino.
He points out that the victory of the unpredictable Trump brings uncertainty both in the country’s domestic and foreign policy.
– It will be interesting to follow Trump’s first moves after January 20, when he is officially appointed as the 47th American president. Among other events, I would single out the elections for the European Parliament, in which European conservative parties retained the majority, but the rise of the right should be a sign that politics is changing. The fall of the governments in France and Germany are an indication that stable democracies are not immune to political turbulence – concluded Dzino.
Editor of Dnevni avaz and political analyst Danijal Hadzovic he singled out Donald Trump’s victory in the American elections as the most important this year, because he thinks it will have the most serious repercussions for the world.
– What I mean by that is that we are definitely moving from the sphere of global “liberalism” to the era of “Kissinger’s realism”, that is, a policy that will no longer even hide that its primary and almost exclusive interest is its own national one, above any universal values and principles. Generally speaking, this will mean a return to the nation-state, along with what goes along with it, such as economic protectionism and greater global mistrust, similar to the situation we had between the two wars. In Trump’s perception as a businessman, there is not too much difference whether you are the leader of a democratic ally or an autocratic leader, as a businessman everything depends on what he can do with you and how much it benefits the company he represents, i.e. It can be brought to America – says Hadžović.
In this particular case, he thinks that this means that Ukraine will have to come to terms with the loss of its eastern territories and will be left without US support, while Gaza and the West Bank will be left at the mercy of the Israeli authorities.
– I think that, unfortunately, this should also raise an alarm in Europe that, especially in the security aspect, we must stop relying on America, and build our own army, security system, as well as increase the productivity of the rather sluggish economy. But, unfortunately, Europe is so internally divided, with crises in its largest states, that I am skeptical that this will happen, and according to all indications, we are entering the era of a new cold war in which the USA and China will pull the strings, and the EU will be some secondary player – said Hadžović.
Journalist and political analyst from Banja Luka Zeljko Raljic he said that the re-election of Donald Trump as president of the USA is certainly a significant planetary event, but in relation to current global events and announcements that 2025 will be a turning point in many ways, it is only an indication of possible directions for the unfolding of key war and political crises.
– Although Vladimir Putin is sending signals about his readiness to sit down at the green table regarding the war in Ukraine, it is clear that most of his demands will be addressed to the West. In this context, I remind you of Putin’s call for a “technological duel” with Western air defense systems against the Russian “Orešnik”, with Kiev as the target – says Raljić.
According to him, it is already clear that in the future overcomposition of geopolitical power, the key direction will be determined by the nuclear potential of the great powers.
– Therefore, the launch of “Oreshnik” on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, a new type of medium-range missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and fly 11 times faster than sound, and is an enigma for NATO air defense systems, is a key event whose reflections will also be how to feel in the time to come. As a confirmation of that, I cite the agreement between Putin and Lukashenko to install 10 “Orešnik” type missiles in Belarus, which borders several countries of the European Union – he said.
Raljić says that we should not forget about the Yalta Conference, which announced the end of the Second World War and the change of the geopolitical map of the world, because it only happened when the USA had the atomic bomb, which they dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki six months later.
(Vijesti.ba / FENA)
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