According to the latest analysis of the respected Institute for the German Economy (IW), the hole in the labor market will be drastically larger than previously predicted.
New forecasts show Germany is facing a historic labor shortage, which could seriously threaten the stability of Europe’s leading economy.
By 2036, the deficit on the German labor market will amount to about 4.3 million workers, which is a drastic jump compared to the forecast of two years ago, when the figure of three million was used.
Demographic data show that there will be around 81.1 million people living in Germany by 2045, which is 2.9 percent less than the current situation.
The total labor force potential will decrease by 6.9 percent by 2036 – from 55 million, as recorded in 2025, to only 51.2 million people.
As the main reason for such dramatic forecasts, IW Institute experts cite significantly lower immigration rates than those predicted in earlier economic models. Germany, which for decades was the promised land for workers from all over the world, is rapidly losing its appeal on the global labor market.
The analysis specifies that by 2036, only 9.8 million inhabitants will reach working age, which is absolutely insufficient to cover the wave of mass retirements of older generations.
Looking at the long term, by 2045 the potential of the working-age population will plummet by as much as 8.3 percent, to only 50.4 million people. If these dark scenarios come true, German companies will be forced to make radical changes in their operations, shut down plants, or massively relocate production to other countries.
(Vijesti.ba)
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