Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase uncertainty in the supply of energy, which is almost always reflected in the price of a barrel on global exchanges.
For countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, which are almost entirely dependent on the import of oil and oil derivatives, such developments have direct consequences.
When fuel becomes more expensive, economists warn, a chain reaction is almost inevitable – more expensive transportation, more expensive production and ultimately more expensive products on the shelves.
Warnings from experts
Fuel prices in Bosnia and Herzegovina are rising again, and economists’ forecasts are uncertain and pessimistic. Instabilities in the world market are already spilling over to domestic pumps.
Experts warn that rising fuel prices could trigger a new wave of price increases for basic products.
– Today you have the president of the most powerful country who says: “We have calculated that we will be at war until at least September.” So by September you attack Iran, and the consequences of such attacks are catastrophic in terms of international flows of oil, capital and everything else. All in all, it is very bad and reflects badly on ordinary people – said sociologist prof. Ph.D. Drago Vuković for FTV.
Sectors that depend on transport and energy will be affected first. Agriculture, industry and food production.
– Inflation is on the way and prices will certainly rise. Fuel went up first, and then bakery products will most likely rise in price, as they are usually the first to follow such trends. We will see the rest, but it is certain that the situation will be difficult – said Jovan Vasilič, president of the Consumer Protection Association “Zvono” Bijeljina.
The food production sector is particularly sensitive. Rising fuel prices increase the costs of tillage, transport and distribution, which producers warn will put further pressure on prices.
– I think we are already in a problem and will be in an even bigger one, if we do not try to reach an agreement to protect farmers, that is, to pass a law on incentives – said Savo Bakajlić, president of the Association of Agricultural Producers of Semberija and Majevica.
Transport and production prices
Bakers point out that the increase in fuel costs directly increases the cost of transportation and production, but that it is still too early to estimate how much bread and bakery products could become more expensive.
– We do not know what other suppliers will do, whether they will raise prices and by how much. When they raise the prices, based on these cost increases, we will make a calculation and then know exactly how much they will increase. At this moment, I would not guess whether it will be ten or twenty pfennigs – said Radenko Pelemiš, president of the Association of Bakers of the Bijeljina region.
In a country where incomes are limited and food prices are already high, every new price increase puts an additional burden on the daily life of citizens.
– We have come to a position where we live according to the principle of “do what you know and can do”. I don’t think anyone can give you an accurate assessment of where all this is going – said one of the citizens.
Experts warn that in such situations it is important to prevent panic and possible shortages on the market.
– Governments can react with certain intervention imports, i.e. try to provide through the budget goods that we do not have enough in stock, so that we can intervene in case of possible shortages, because that is exactly what people fear the most – pointed out Vasilič.
Vuković appealed to citizens not to panic.
– I appeal to citizens not to panic. This type of conflict is not like the conflicts that were characteristic of our spaces. What is bad is that such conflicts affect our standard, make life more expensive and create a feeling of fear – Vuković said.
Where the limit of price growth is, it is difficult to estimate for now. What is certain is that both producers and citizens will welcome the coming months with much more caution in planning expenses, he writes. Factor.
