The first long-term forecasts have arrived for the summer, and according to the analyzes of the weather service of the north weather (SWE), Europe is waiting for a very dynamic period.
Summer could start with slightly more precipitation, but the middle and the end of the season bring drying conditions and a higher risk of heat waves.
In seasonal and long-term forecasts, it should always be borne in mind that it is trends, not precise scenarios. There are many global factors that can affect time forms. However, these first forecasts provide an insight into how it could look like the summer.
Transition from spring in summer
Before you route on the summer season alone, the north of Weather Europe analyzed what awaited us during spring, specifically in April, May and June.
The quarterly forecast of air pressure anomalies shows that the area of low pressure is developed over the western and northwestern Europe, which opens up space for the inflow of warmer and humorous air from the south, especially from the Mediterranean. At the same time, the field of high pressure is formed above the east and northeast of Europe, index.hr transmits.
In such a schedule, most of the continent is under the influence of warmer air mass. The west has somewhat milder temperature anomalies due to the proximity of cyclones, while more pronounced thermal values are expected above the east and northeast.
When it comes to precipitation, most of Europe expect the above-average rainfall, especially in the west and northwest, while the Southeast Europe will be more sujner, influenced by anticyclones. Overall, spring will end up in a “lively atmosphere,” SWE writes, and towards the middle and end of the summer, more stable weather conditions are expected.
Jun: The beginning of the summer under the Characterity sign
Severe Weather Europe delivers an early Overview of the ECMWF model for Jun – model that proved to be one of the more reliable in seasonal forecasts.
According to the first maps, over the North Atlantic and Northwest Europe, an area of low pressure will be kept, while anticyclone strengthening is expected at the same time to the east and Scandinavia.
Such a schedule is suitable for Western and Southwest currents towards Central Europe, which means warmer air and increased moisture – conditions that often bring instability and more pronounced weather.
Temperatures will be above average in most of Europe, and the warmest will be in central, southeastern Europe and Northern Europe.
As for precipitation, more rain is expected in the western and central ends and in the northwest, while the south and southeast will remain dry.
Jul: Increased risk of thermal waves and drought
As a rule, Jul is the warmest month of the year, and according to the models analyzed by the north of Weather Europe, it could be especially expression this year. Forecasts show a stable and strong anticyclone located over central and northern Europe – it is about the so-called. a blocking system that brings long-term stability, heat and drought.
The thermal surplus is most pronounced in Central and Southeast Europe, while temperatures closer to the average average are expected in the extreme north and southwest.
Precipitation will be scarce in most central and northern Europe, while slightly more rain fall in the far north, for example over the parts of the United Kingdom and Scandinavia.
It all points for that July could make more pronounced dry conditions and increased risk of thermal waves, especially in Central Europe.
August: Thermal waves do not give in
August, as the last meteorological summer month, often brings the heat extension – and models of the north of the Europeans indicate that it will be this year. High pressure will remain dominant over central and northern Europe, and heat waves will continue. The low pressure area to the east is somewhat limited by extreme temperatures in that part of the continent.
The largest heat surplus is expected in the central and northern parts of Europe.
Precipitation will be rare in a larger part of the continent, and some more precipitation is possible in the extreme north and east.
(Vijesti.ba)
