The temporary difficulties in the supply of fuel that appeared in the last few days at some gas stations in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina opened up the question of the stability of the energy market, but also showed how quickly fear in the market can produce an effect similar to a real shortage.
The Federal Ministry of Energy, Mining and Industry says that there is currently no systemic problem with the import or availability of oil and oil derivatives, but that the disruption occurred due to a sudden increase in demand caused by the fear of possible disruptions in the global energy market.
According to their data, in the past few days, the so-called tertiary stocks – that is, the amount of fuel held by citizens and companies – have increased significantly, while the primary and secondary warehouses of importers and distributors have temporarily decreased.
In practice, this means that the fuel did not disappear from the system, but only changed its place – from the distributor’s warehouse, it moved into car tanks, private canisters and company stocks.
Fear of scarcity
Such a phenomenon in energy is well known. The fear of a potential shortage often sets off a chain reaction in the market where consumers try to secure additional reserves. This reaction then creates short-term pressure on distribution capacities and gas stations.
In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, that effect is further enhanced by global circumstances. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the rise in oil prices on international stock markets in recent weeks have increased nervousness in energy markets throughout Europe, including in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
At the same time, the regional fuel market has been operating with relatively small strategic reserves for a long time, which makes it more sensitive to sudden changes in demand.
Federal Minister of Energy, Mining and Industry Vedran Lakić announced that on Wednesday, March 11, a meeting will be held with the Prime Minister of the Federation, Nermin Nikšić, and representatives of the oil sector, where the current situation will be analyzed and possible measures considered.
One of the topics of that meeting will be the long-term security of energy supplies in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The Ministry states that it will propose additional mechanisms to the Government that would reduce the market’s vulnerability to such disturbances in the future.
Oil reserves
Energy circles have been warning for a long time that Bosnia and Herzegovina does not have a sufficiently developed system of strategic reserves of oil and oil derivatives, which means that the market is largely dependent on regular imports and the stability of regional supply flows.
This is why even relatively small disruptions – such as short-term growth in demand or logistical disruptions – can create the perception of a crisis.
It is this perception that often has a greater impact on the market than the actual availability of fuel. When consumers lose confidence in the stability of supply, market behavior changes and consumption rises sharply.
That is why the authorities are now trying to send reassuring messages and prevent further spread of panic, stressing that distributors are working to quickly fill warehouses and normalize deliveries.
Nevertheless, although the supply is expected to stabilize in the coming days, the latest events have once again opened the question of how prepared the energy system of Bosnia and Herzegovina is for more serious global disruptions in the energy market. Factor.
