In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the number of employees and pensioners has almost equalized. Currently, the ratio is 1.19 workers per one pensioner. Economic expert Admir Čavalić, who is also a federal representative, says that this trend is alarming.
The Federal Institute for Pension and Disability Insurance says that the ratio of workers to pensioners has been at approximately the same level for the last ten years.
– The average number of insured workers in 2025 was 544,730, while the average number of registered pension beneficiaries was 459,578. This gives a ratio of approximately 1.19 insured workers per one pensioner. Although from the aspect of sustainability of the system it would certainly be preferable if the ratio of insured persons and pensioners were more favorable, we note that the said ratio has been moving at approximately the same level for the last ten years. Funds for the payment of pensions are secured in the FBiH Budget, and the Federal Institute regularly and continuously settles all obligations towards pension beneficiaries – Tomislav Kvesić, spokesperson of the Federal Institute for Pension and Disability Insurance, told Faktor.
Economic expert and federal representative Admir Čavalić is not optimistic.
– The trend is definitely negative. When Bismarck’s pension fund was formed, in Germany there were eight (workers) to one (pensioner), and the golden rule is four to one, and we are at 1.19 to one, with the fact that perhaps the situation is worse in RS and Serbia. In some countries, it threatens to fall below that, that there will be fewer workers than pensioners.
I think this trend is alarming, especially since the number of employees is falling.
The FBiH Tax Administration has published data that show that the labor market is far from perfect. On the other hand, not enough foreign labor is imported, and we have an increasing number of pensioners. And thank God, the demographic trends are such that people are living longer, but on the other hand, the birth rate is falling. There are fewer workers who will pay contributions – says Čavalić and points out:
– There are two solutions to this situation. The first is the increase in the number of employees, and the second is the real increase in wages. In this way, the PIO Fund can be helped. All the rest are populist solutions, patching holes, like borrowing, he writes Factor.
