Demographer Prof. Ph.D. Stevo Pašalić warned that the Republika Srpska (RS) is entering a period of long-term demographic changes in which low fertility is no longer the only problem, but part of a broader depopulation process that includes a decrease in the number of inhabitants, an aging population and intensive migration movements.
In an interview with Fena Pašalić, he points out that, according to demographic theory, generational change is possible when the total fertility rate is 2.1 children per woman in the fertile, i.e., reproductive period from 15 to 49 years.
“For the Republic of Srpska, in the conditions of a ‘closed population’, which excludes migration, for the year 2025 it was necessary to give birth to around 13,800 children, with an estimate that there were 229,859.8 women in the reproductive period,” he states.
However, he emphasizes that such a number is no longer enough.
“Due to the effect of factors such as increased mortality, intensive emigration and a decrease in the fertility rate due to the increase in the average age at birth of children – the ‘pace effect’, this would not be nearly enough for simple reproduction”, he emphasizes.
From the RS, 10,000 people annually
He added that even a total fertility rate of 2.5 children per woman, which would mean approximately 17,000 births per year, would not allow population renewal.
He also notes that it is necessary to take into account other important factors, among others, the departure of the population and the negative natural increase.
“About 10,000 people leave the RS every year, the negative natural increase in the last ten years is between 4,000 and 5,000 per year, and there is also a ‘tempo effect’,” he emphasizes.
Pašalić states that the “average age at birth” in Republika Srpska has reached 33.8 years today, while at the beginning of the 90s it was around 27 years.
“Due to the action of these factors during the last 30 years, the birth rate has been reduced by about 0.5 children per woman,” he points out.
When all these elements are included in the projections, demographers estimate that almost 20,000 births per year would be needed for the simple reproduction of the population, which, as he points out, is unattainable.
Speaking about the reproductive behavior of the population, Pašalić emphasizes that the Republika Srpska records a pronounced trend of postponing parenthood.
This, he says, is confirmed by the data that more than 80 percent of women between the ages of 20 and 24 do not have children, even though it is precisely at that age that the highest level of biological fertility of around 93 percent is recorded.
“At the same time, about two-thirds of women between the ages of 25 and 29 did not participate in reproduction, nor did one-third of women between the ages of 30 and 34,” says Pašalić, adding that in the RS, one-quarter of women aged 35 do not have children.
A decrease in physiological fertility is also present
He notes that these are mostly women who live in urban areas and have higher or higher education, and the differences between municipalities and cities are pronounced.
Pašalić believes that delayed childbearing, later parenthood and delayed marriage are one of the key causes of low fertility, not only in the Republic of Srpska, but also in numerous European countries.
He also pointed to the fact that an additional problem arises when generations of women between the ages of 30 and 35 have not yet entered parenthood.
“It can be assumed that there is already a reduction in physiological fertility, secondary infertility, a higher psychological cost of marriage and childbearing at an older age, which means that they will not be able to achieve the desired number of children,” he pointed out, noting that delaying childbearing increases the risk of an unfavorable pregnancy course and outcome.
What are the causes
Speaking about the causes of delaying parenthood, Pašalić states that research shows that youth unemployment, fixed-term work, difficulty solving the housing issue, low living standards and insufficient support for families in childcare play a significant role.
Among the eight economic reasons, he also considers social and value changes to be important.
“These are the uncertainty of the future, socio-political circumstances, increased investment in a professional career, difficulties in finding a suitable partner, but also factors that affect reproductive health, dominant patterns of birth control, and the challenges of harmonizing education, work and parenthood,” says Fenin’s interlocutor.
In this context, he emphasized that it is important to develop the modern concept of family planning in the function of preserving reproductive health, assessing that the implementation of such measures could have a stimulating effect not only on the decision on the first, but also on the second and third child.
“The political response to low fertility should be long-term, comprehensive and based on records of different types. The findings on the reasons for delaying childbearing indicate to policy makers that it is necessary to try to alleviate the barriers to the birth and raising of children, especially the first, at the optimal age,” said Pašalić, concluding that it is necessary to reduce not only the economic, but also the social and psychological cost of parenthood through support for modern forms of union between a woman and a man.
How many people live in BiH today?
In the “open population” model, which includes migration, Pašalić estimates that the Republika Srpska had 979,706 inhabitants last year. According to the data of the Republic Institute for Statistics, 1,170,342 inhabitants lived in the Republic of Srpska in 2013, which means that more than 190,000 inhabitants were “lost” in the meantime.
Pašalić arrived at these estimates using the “equilibrium equation”, based on vital statistics data from the Republic Institute of Statistics. This equation is used when it is necessary to represent the change in population size between two time periods as a result of natural increase and migration balance.
Speaking about the broader context, Pašalić reminded that Bosnia and Herzegovina had 4,377,033 inhabitants in 1991, and according to his estimates, in 2025 that number was 2,826,669.
For the Federation of BiH, the estimated number of inhabitants last year was 1,779,290, and for the District of Brčko 67,673 inhabitants, it says Focus.
