For almost a decade, the Hmeimim Air Base and the Tartus Naval Base on the Syrian coast have served as Moscow’s military presence in the Mediterranean.
Now, war-torn Libya is becoming central to Russia’s efforts to project power in the region and expand its military engagement in Africa.
Flight tracking data analyzed by CNN reveals more than one flight a day of Russian Antonov AN-124 and Ilyushin IL-76 transport planes from Hmeimim to al-Khadim, a base near Benghazi.
For years, this base has served as a Russian stronghold in support of General Khalifa Haftar, a key player in eastern Libya.
According to Jalel Harchaoui, a fellow at the London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), in recent weeks there has been a “significant increase in the number of Russian planes landing in Libya from Syria, Russia and Belarus.”
“By increasing its presence in Libya, Moscow could retain enough resources to pursue its broader ambitions in Africa, although this will inevitably bring new costs after the fall of the Assad regime,” Harchaoui said.
Russia has already begun withdrawing its military equipment and troops from Syria, including advanced air defense systems, which could mean it intends to use them to bolster its presence in Libya.
The flights from al-Khadim to Mali, where Russia is increasingly replacing French influence, also indicate a new phase of Russian military operations in Africa. The investigative organization All Eyes on Wagner reported earlier this year that a compound had been built near al-Khadim for Russian personnel in transit to other African destinations.
Geopolitical analysts stress that Russia could consider using ports under Haftar’s control, such as Tobruk, as a replacement for Syria’s Tartus. This is already causing concern among NATO members.
Italian Defense Minister Guido Croceto warned that “Russian ships and submarines in the Mediterranean are always a concern, especially since they are getting closer to our borders.”
Although Moscow is deepening relations with Haftar, experts warn of the risks of relying on an unstable ally in politically divided Libya.
Ulf Lessing from the Konrad Adenauer Foundation emphasizes that Haftar (he is 81 years old) is not a reliable long-term ally and could decide to reject Russia if he considers it to be in his interest.
Libya also presents logistical challenges. Russian transport planes can only reach Libya by flying through Turkey, giving President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan an important bargaining chip against Moscow.
The fall of the Assad regime is a serious blow to Russia’s ambitions in Africa, analysts warn. African governments that have relied on Russian military support may question Moscow’s reliability.
“In Mali and Niger, it has been noted that Russia has not supported Assad, which will weaken the ability to conclude new contracts for the Afrika Korps mercenaries, who have replaced Wagner’s forces in Africa,” concludes Lessing.
Although it is not yet clear whether the new Syrian leadership will drive the Russians out of Hmeimim and Tartus, Moscow clearly wants to secure alternative options for its military ambitions in the increasingly strategically important region.
(Vijesti.ba)
www.vijesti.ba
