In the US Electoral College, a candidate needs at least 270 of the 539 electoral votes to win the election.
Each state has a certain number of electoral votes, proportional to the number of inhabitants. Some states favor one party, while in undecided states (so-called swing states) the situation can change, which makes them crucial in deciding the outcome of the election.
These are seven states that have a total of 93 electoral votes: Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6).
How can Kamala Harris win?
According to projections, Harris will secure at least 226 electoral votes in 19 states and the District of Columbia, with strong support from California (54), New York (28) and Illinois (19).
To get to 270 Electoral College votes, Harris will need at least 44 of the 93 swing states.
Her easiest path to victory would be to get the support of Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16) and North Carolina (16), which would secure her 51 electoral votes and the presidency. However, according to the poll average FiveThirtyEightshe currently trails Trump in all three states – in Pennsylvania by a small margin, and in Georgia and North Carolina by slightly larger margins.
Mathematically, Democrats have 11 ways Harris can get 270 Electoral College votes, winning the votes of only three of seven swing states, and nine ways if he wins Electoral College votes in four swing states. Winning five or more swing states would guarantee any candidate a White House berth.
These are the combinations of votes Harris needs to win in three or four swing states to reach 270 electoral votes:
How can Donald Trump win?
According to projections, Republicans will secure at least 219 electoral votes from 24 states across the country, with strong support from Texas (40), Florida (30) and Ohio (17).
To get to 210 electoral votes, Trump will need at least 51 of the 93 swing states.
Just like the Democrats, the easiest path to victory is to get the support of Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16) and North Carolina (16), which would secure 51 electoral votes and have exactly 270 electoral votes the Republicans need to win the presidency. According to polls, he currently leads in all three states.
If the Republicans do not get the support of these three states, then they must win the electoral votes of at least four of the seven swing states to secure the presidency. Mathematically, when it comes to supporting four swing states, Republicans have 20 winning combinations.
What if there is a tie?
There are three scenarios in which Harris and Trump can win 269 electoral votes.
This could happen if there are no surprises and if Harris and Trump secure 226 and 219 electoral votes, respectively, and the results in undecided states are as follows:
Scenario 1
Democrats wins at Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6)
Republicans wins at Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16) and Michigan (15)
Scenario 2
Democrats wins at Georgia (16), North Carolina (16) and Arizona (11)
Republicans wins in Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6)
Scenario 3
Democrats wins at North Carolina (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6)
Republicans wins in Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16) and Michigan (15).
In the event of any of these outcomes, conditional (contingent) elections will be held where the House of Representatives of the US Congress decides on the winner, it says Al Jazeera Balkans.
In that case, the delegation of each state in the House of Representatives would cast one vote, and the winning candidate must secure a majority (26 out of 50) of the state delegation’s votes.
The US Senate would elect the vice president, with each senator casting one vote, and victory would be decided by a simple majority (51 votes).
The graphic below shows additional combinations for each candidate:
