The Central Bank of BiH (CBBH) estimates the annual growth of real economic activity in the third quarter of this year at 2.3 percent, which is identical to the estimate from September.
The growth of the service sector mostly contributed to the growth of economic activity, bearing in mind that indicators such as industrial production and export of goods recorded a cumulative decline in ten months of the current year.
The preliminary estimate of annual real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.1 percent, based on expectations of weak demand from abroad and the impact of floods.
– We estimate that total inflation could amount to 1.5 percent, and core inflation to 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. According to preliminary estimates, excluding unforeseen price shocks, we expect a slight strengthening of inflationary pressures in the first quarter of 2025, and annual inflation of 1.8 percent. The increase in the price of electricity and transportation can lead to a chain increase in the prices of services and consumer goods, as a result of which the inflation projections could be revised even higher – the CBBH states.
They add that their estimates of economic activity and inflation in the short term are consistent with the projections for 2024 from the autumn round of medium-term macroeconomic projections.
