Bitcoin may continue its current decline, according to Cantor Fitzgerald, but this is likely a prelude to the crypto industry entering a more stable, institutionally driven phase.
Markets are likely in the early stages of a crypto winter, mirroring bitcoin’s historic four-year cycle, according to analyst Brett Knoblauch’s year-end report. Bitcoin is roughly 85 days past its peak, and Knoblauch suggests that prices could remain under pressure for months, possibly even testing the Strategy’s (MSTR) average price at a breakeven point near $75,000.
However, unlike past downturns, this one may not be defined by mass liquidations or structural failures. Institutional participants, rather than retail traders, are now shaping the contours of the market, according to Knoblauch, who identified a widening gap between token price performance and what’s actually happening “under the hood,” particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi), tokenized assets, and crypto infrastructure.
Take real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. According to the report, the value of tokenized RWAs on the chain — assets like credit products, US Treasuries and stocks — tripled over the year to $18.5 billion. Cantor said the amount could exceed $50 billion in 2026, and the pace is accelerating as more financial institutions experiment with on-chain settlement.
The change is also reflected in the way cryptocurrency is traded, reports SEEbiz. Decentralized exchanges (DEXs), which operate without intermediaries, are gaining market share over centralized venues. While trading volume may fall in 2026 with the price of bitcoin, Cantor said he expects DEXs, especially those trading perpetual futures, to continue to grow as infrastructure and user experience improve.
Regulatory clarity is a key part of this evolving landscape. The recent passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or CLARITY, in the US marks a turning point, according to the report. The law defines when a digital asset is treated as a security and when as a commodity, and assigns primary oversight of spot crypto markets to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) once decentralization thresholds are met.
That legal framework could reduce the main risk and open the door for banks and asset managers to get more directly involved in crypto markets. It also strengthens the legitimacy of decentralized protocols by offering paths to compliance, which have historically been a major obstacle.
Other trends Cantor highlights include the rise of the onchain prediction market, particularly in sports betting, where volumes increased to over $5.9 billion, more than 50% of DraftKings’ third-quarter turnover. Firms like Robinhood ( HOOD ), Coinbase ( COIN ) and Gemini ( GEMI ) have entered the industry, introducing fairer alternatives to traditional book-driven sportsbooks.
However, risks remain. The price of bitcoin is only about 17% above the average price of bitcoin treasury firm Strategy. A break below that level could spook the market, although Cantor believes the firm is unlikely to sell. Meanwhile, digital assets (DAT) have slowed accumulation as token prices and trust premiums fall.
Next year may not offer the next big cryptocurrency breakthrough. But the foundations for more permanent infrastructure and deeper institutional adoption appear to be solidifying, Cantor concludes.
