Stefan Paul, the director of the company Kuehne and Nagel, in his statement to Swiss television SRF on March 5, did not use exaggerations, but only read data from his company’s supply chains. Dubai and the wider Gulf region import between 80 and 90 percent of their food, and as much as 70 percent of food for the GCC countries passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, this key strait has been closed to commercial traffic since February 28. The situation is further aggravated by the fact that air cargo capacity to the Middle East fell by 22 percent between February 28 and March 3, according to Aevean data published by Reuters.
The port of Jebel Ali, which serves 50 million people across the Gulf and is the main regional hub through which the vast majority of perishable imports to Dubai pass, was hit by the strikes. Its operations were suspended, and partial resumption of work followed only on March 5.
When the sea lanes are closed, the air routes collapse, and the main port is hit, the city is left with only a ten-day supply of fresh food.
The problem is physics, not finance
It is important to make a distinction, fresh produce is not the same as canned food or strategic reserves. It is strawberries, tomatoes, lettuce, dairy products and herbs that make the modern city work. These products have a shelf life of days, not months.
They cannot be diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, as that would extend the voyage by four to six weeks, which fresh goods in containers simply cannot survive. When routes are closed, stocks of these categories are consumed in real time, without any reserve.
Although Dubai is one of the richest cities on the planet, with the fiscal capacity and sovereign wealth to buy food from anywhere in the world, money is not the answer at this time. The problem is the infrastructure. It is impossible to “teleport” products from Spain, Kenya or India to supermarket shelves in Dubai while air routes are drastically reduced and the port is recovering from Iranian attacks.
Empty shelves as a political blow
This ten day estimate is for fresh food only, not the total supply. The population is not facing starvation, given that the Government of the United Arab Emirates maintains significant stocks of dry food, frozen products and strategic grain reserves.
What the city is facing is the moment when the visible symbol of a globalized, prosperous and connected city, the fully equipped supermarket, begins to lose its luster. Emptying the shelves is as much a political event as a logistical one.
An alternative route for oil was Fujairah, while air cargo was an alternative for food. Both are now compromised, and there is simply no third way, writes klix
