The projection of the growth of economic activity in BiH this year has been corrected downwards, to the level of two percent, due to the weakening of domestic and foreign demand, which was reflected in personal consumption, investments, imports and exports, the Central Bank of BiH announced.
In the Autumn round of medium-term macroeconomic projections, the CBBH states that these components of the national accounts are partly influenced by the base effect from last year. The most significant contribution to economic growth in the short term is still expected from personal consumption, as the largest macroeconomic aggregate.
– By the end of the projection horizon, currently, we expect a gradual intensification of economic activity and a gradual weakening of inflationary pressures – the CBBH points out.
They note that due to the lack of official data on GDP according to the expenditure calculation for the second quarter of the current year, the latest rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter (1.9 percent) was used. A detailed revision of official statistical data on GDP according to the consumption approach is underway, and revisions of the projections in the spring round of 2026 are also possible on this basis, the CBBH added, Fena reports.
– Domestic inflationary pressures have increased significantly since the beginning of the year. In 2025, we project inflation of 4.1 percent, which is revised upward by 0.6 percentage points from the spring round of medium-term macroeconomic projections, and is consistent with the latest flash estimates of near-term inflation. In the projection horizon, a gradual weakening of domestic inflationary pressures is expected – according to the CBBH.
The estimated values of real GDP, its components and other macroeconomic variables, as they added, are exposed to an extremely high degree of uncertainty related to economic activity in the countries of the main trading partners, political opportunities at the global and local level, but also possible significant effects of changes in the domestic labor market on the price competitiveness of domestic products and services.
