Today, February 13, the Bank of Russia (BR) lowered the reference interest rate by 50 basis points, from 16 percent to 15.5 percent, which is the sixth rate cut since the beginning of the summer.
Russia’s economy is slowly returning to the path of growth
The Russian economy is slowly returning to a balanced growth path, although in January there was a temporary acceleration of price growth due to one-off factors that will soon weaken, notes the Bank of Russia.
The Central Bank explains that prices temporarily rose at the beginning of the year due to the increase in VAT and excise duties in Russia, the indexation of administrative prices and the correction of prices for fruits and vegetables.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, seasonally adjusted price growth in Russia slowed to 3.9 percent year-on-year, from 6.5 percent in the third quarter.
The Bank of Russia expects a drop in inflation
Most indicators of base inflation in recent months ranged from four to five percent.
The Bank of Russia expects that inflation in 2026 will fall to a range of 4.5 to 5.5 percent, and base inflation will be stable at four percent in the second half of this year.
Russia’s gross domestic product grew by one percent in 2025, which is the upper limit of the previous forecast.
Although growth slowed during the year, it accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to higher consumption by citizens, partly fueled by expectations of higher taxes.
Domestic demand
Domestic demand is expected to moderate in the coming months, while unemployment remains at historic lows and wage growth exceeds productivity growth.
The Central Bank of Russia assesses that, in the medium term, risks that can stimulate inflation continue to prevail, including high inflation expectations, the effects of higher taxes and movements in foreign markets.
Low oil prices and the weakening of the global economy could further affect the ruble exchange rate and inflation, and an important factor of uncertainty is still geopolitical tensions, according to the website of the Bank of Russia.
The next session of the Bank of Russia dedicated to interest rates is scheduled for March 20, 2026, says the regulator, reports Tanjug.
