Copper on a new record

Prices rose as much as 6.6% in the first minutes of trading – the biggest daily gain since 2022 – to nearly $13,000 a tonne, before retreating later to close 0.5% higher in London. New York futures fell, erasing most of Friday’s 5% gain while the LME was closed.

The latest surge caps a remarkable year for copper, which is on track for its best performance since 2009. The rally has been marred by significant unplanned mine shutdowns, uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s trade policies and unprecedented pressure on global smelters.

More recently, the rise has been fueled by a renewed surge in shipments to the US, which has drained the metal from the rest of the global market. Trump’s plan to revisit tariffs on primary copper in 2026 has revived the arbitrage trade that rocked the market earlier this year, reducing availability elsewhere even as underlying demand from key buyer China has eased, SEEbiz reports.

In addition to the tariff-driven flows, a deadly accident at the world’s second-largest copper mine in Indonesia, an underground flood in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a fatal rock explosion at a mine in Chile have further weighed on metal availability.

At the same time, the long-term demand outlook remains strong, underpinned by electrification trends that demand huge amounts of metals for power grids, energy infrastructure and manufacturing. Investors are also betting that copper consumption will rise further to meet the growing energy needs of artificial intelligence.

Industry analysts say many of the richest and most readily available mining resources have been depleted, raising concerns about where new supply will come from in the next decade and beyond to meet projected consumption growth.

Still, some analysts warn that prices have risen too high, especially as underlying consumption weakens in China, the biggest consumer of copper.