Amid the recent bearish price movement, the headline of Citigroup’s 12-month outlook for bitcoin at $143,000 – or about 62% upside from the current $88,000 – will cause surprise.
“We anticipate increased digital asset adoption, driven by potential US digital asset legislation in the second quarter, with bitcoin likely to hover around $80,000-$90,000 in user activity in the new year,” Citi analysts Alex Saunders, Dirk Willer and Vinh Vo said in a joint report.
They said the $70,000 level should be watched as key support, noting that this is roughly the price of bitcoin just before Donald Trump won the 2024 election.
Their baseline scenario for 12 months is a sharp rise to $143,000, driven, they said, by revived demand for ETFs and positive stock market forecasts, SEEbiz reports. Regulatory catalysts – especially the passing and signing of the Law on Clarity (already passed in the House of Representatives) – should encourage further adoption and inflow of funds, they added.
But there is also a bearish scenario, with the group predicting it will target a low of $78,500, down more than 10% from current levels. They believe a global recession would be the catalyst.
The bullish scenario would be $189,000, which is more than double the current levels, thanks to the increased final share.
