The Central Bank of BiH estimates the annual growth of real economic activity in the first quarter of 2025. at 2.2 percent, which is lower by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous round of rapid assessments.
To meet the reduction of domestic demand, the trade activity has recorded a reduction in the scope of activities from the beginning of the year.
They state that the still negative contribution of the processing industry activity further slows down economic activity in the country.
Preliminary assessment of the annual growth rate of real GDP for the second quarter of 2025. Is 2.5 percent, primarily due to the expected more intensive growth of service sector activities.
Total inflation in the second quarter of 2025. The CBBH estimates at 3.3 percent, and fundamental inflation into four percent. Preliminary assessment of total inflation in the third quarter of 2025. Is three percent, and the basic inflation four percent.
Inflation in the observed period is dominantly encouraged by the growth of food prices and services, which had an upward trend due to higher input costs. A significant contribution to the growth of input costs comes from increasing the minimum wage, which had a chain effect on salary growth in all activities.
In the coming period, the CBBH expects the strengthening of inflationary pressures in the country and due to possible shocks in the prices of goods traded in international markets, primarily energy.
Current estimates of quarterly economic activity and inflation in the short term are consistent with published medium-term annual macroeconomic projections from April. Uncertainty regarding estimates, primarily inflation, are very pronounced in the short term.
