Wall Street adores good returns – and the S & P 500 has recently recorded the tenth record value of the closure.
Investors reactivable again. However, there is a threat behind optimism that could shake the market take-off.
Analysts from JP Morgan warn that the current growth of S & P 500 can be seriously endangered due to American customs.
All started on March 2. April when President Donald Trump introduced the so-called “Tariffs of the Liberation Day”: The new rate of 10% on all imports and reciprocal measures caused a four-day drop of 3.2% to S & P 500 and deleted over $ 3,000 billion. It was the worst for the stock market for the stock market since Covid Crisis.
Customs act as taxes and companies and consumers – increase production costs, reduce profit margins, slow down expansion and reduce employment. The market then revises the expected profits, and the prices of shares are falling.
Still, the recovery followed during May, with hope for a break of white houses with new customs and progress in relations with China. After the temporary truce in mid-June, now they still introduced a new customs duty of 55% to Chinese imports, while Beijing returned with 10%.
The deadline for additional customs was moved from 9. July to 1. August, which the market greeted as a positive signal, so S & P from mid-April jumped almost 20% to the beginning of June and recorded new records.
Still, uncertainty returns. The market with discomfort awaits the expiry of the 90-day break in the introduction of new customs. If the absence of the agreement occurs, the Morgan Stanley warns, the growth of customs could return the negative scenario from April, the investor is transferred.
Finance Minister Scott Bessent announced that customs customs could be reset to the previous level, except for countries that sign a deal. For the EU and Japan threat remains realistic.
In the worst scenario, the rapid growth of customs could slow the US GDP at only 1% by the end of the year, especially if inflation is maintained, and market valutions remain high.
Despite the challenges, the American stock exchanges are still in the plus: S & P 500 has so far in 2025. increased 6.8%, Nasdaq 6.7% thanks to Nvidia, and Dow Jones about 5.4%. However, analysts warn that valuations are now above the historical average – which leaves very little error space.
