The economic impact of tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump was “significantly smaller” than expected, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said, raising its economic growth forecast for 2026. Among the countries that could benefit from the new circumstances is Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Last week, the US Supreme Court overturned a large part of Trump’s tariff policy, after which the US president imposed a new 10 percent tariff using a different legal basis, while announcing that he could raise it to 15 percent.
However, for the countries in which the EBRD operates, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, these changes will bring only “very limited” consequences, the bank’s chief economist Beata Javorcik told AFP.
The EBRD was founded in 1991 to help the countries of the former Soviet bloc in the transition to a market economy, and today it operates in the Middle East, North Africa and parts of sub-Saharan Africa.
“The impact of US tariffs on the countries in which we operate was limited, much less than expected,” said Javorcik.
As reported by the portal Euractivin the latest report published today, the EBRD predicts an acceleration of economic growth in its regions to 3.6 percent this year, with further growth to 3.7 percent by 2027.
It is particularly significant that the EBRD lists Bosnia and Herzegovina among the countries that could benefit somewhat from lower tariffs and changes in global trade flows, along with Serbia, Moldova and Tunisia.
“There are some countries that could potentially benefit from lower tariffs, such as Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova or Tunisia, but the overall picture remains largely unchanged,” Javorcik said.
At the same time, she warned that the full effects of the tariffs are not yet fully visible, as a significant part of exports from 2025 reached the American market before the new measures came into force.
For Bosnia and Herzegovina, the key factor remains the indirect influence through the European market, given the strong integration of domestic industry into European production chains, especially in the metal sector, automotive industry and industrial components.
The EBRD also noted that the rise of artificial intelligence has increased U.S. imports of technology equipment, including semiconductors and other advanced industrial products. N1 BiH.
