The Central Bank of BH (CBBH) estimates the annual growth of real economic activity in the first quarter of this year at 2.1 percent, which is identical to the rapid estimate from March of this year.
Compared to the March round of estimates, the current estimates do not bring significant changes in the short-term prospects of economic growth, confirming expectations about relatively moderate dynamics of economic activity in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The preliminary estimate of the annual real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2026 is two percent, with a dominant contribution from the service sector, while the contribution of the manufacturing industry is negative due to weak external demand and increased production costs, reports Fena.
Inflation has been significantly revised upwards this round. Compared to the March round of rapid assessments, inflationary pressures have increased due to the rise in energy prices on the world market and their spillover to domestic prices.
– We currently estimate that total inflation could amount to 5.3 percent, and core inflation to 4.5 percent in the first half of 2026. We expect that inflationary pressures will continue to be present in the third quarter, and we estimate that total inflation could amount to 6.1 percent, and core inflation to 4.5 percent. Until now, within the June round of projections, we usually communicated preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter. However, the dispersion of risk according to the estimate, even in such a relatively short term, is, due to expressed uncertainties in the international and domestic environment, highly asymmetric, implying a significant risk in the inflation estimate for the last quarter of the current year – CBBH states.
